Luka Doncic can snatch the NBA's best player belt - an arbitrary title that seemingly shifts hands every season - with an NBA Finals victory over the Celtics. Jayson Tatum can silence his critics with a Finals win over the Mavericks after five Eastern Conference finals appearances in seven seasons.
While the superstars steal the headlines, other players will also decide the Finals. We already previewed the series, now let's evaluate player props and find out who's due for a breakout series or a disappointing one.
Kristaps Porzingis: Over 15.4 points per game
The Mavs' exceptional rim protection helped propel them to the Finals. The Celtics have the perfect counter to that: a 7-foot-2 Latvian center who shot 37% from three this season. Porzingis is expected to return from a calf injury in Game 1 after sitting out since April 29.
His shooting ability creates driving lanes for the Celtics' other four perimeter scorers. He stood near the 3-point line for long stretches when the Mavs and Celtics last played in March. He finished with 24 points and shot 4-for-8 from three, a significant jump from his usual 5.1 3-point attempts per game.
Porzingis' first instinct is to pop for a three after setting a screen, spacing the floor while dragging the opposing big away from the rim. When teams switch the screen, Porzingis identifies the mismatch and walks his smaller defender into the post. From there, he feasts, like he did against Doncic and Kyrie Irving in March:
The Mavs switch everything in the pick-and-roll. Kristaps took advantage of mismatches against Luka and Kyrie on those switches. Dallas did the same thing against the Wolves, but Kristaps is on another level in the post than Rudy Gobert. pic.twitter.com/MUosVMbkkr
— Sam Oshtry (@soshtry) June 2, 2024
The Mavs consistently switch ball screens. They did it whenever the Timberwolves put Doncic in action. Doncic often found himself guarding Rudy Gobert in the post, but Gobert's offensive arsenal near the rim doesn't sniff Porzingis'.
After years of being labeled a liability (including during his stint in Dallas), Porzingis produced one of the most efficient post-up seasons in NBA history, scoring 1.29 points per possession on post-ups, per Synergy.
Porzingis averaged 20 points per game during the regular season. Assuming he's healthy and restrictions are lifted, this is an ideal matchup for Boston's big. The Celtics need him to abuse mismatches and knock down treys.
Derrick White: Threes series leader (+300), Over 2.7 threes per game
While he doesn't get the recognition that other stars do, White is as important to the Celtics as anyone. He's an offensive connector who runs the show as a ball-handler and thrives off the ball.
Boston has an array of perimeter threats, and Dallas doesn't have enough quality defenders to match up. Derrick Jones and P.J. Washington will start on Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Doncic and Irving will take turns on White and Jrue Holiday, creating a favorable matchup for White, who's shooting 40% from three this postseason.
He leads the Celtics in 3-point makes and attempts, firing 8.4 per game. Doncic is the only player in the series who attempts more threes per game (9.8). White and Doncic each connect on 3.4 per match. Doncic's looks are more challenging because he commands additional defensive attention. He's the favorite to lead the series in threes because he has the ball more than anyone, but there's value on White.
Kyrie Irving: Under 23.8 points per game
TD Garden will create a hostile environment for Irving, who endured a disastrous two years in Boston. He'll eventually block out the noise, but the boos and chirps will be unlike anything he's experienced.
The 2016 champion's postseason career is filled with clutch moments, but he won't find a true matchup advantage against the Celtics' starting lineup. White and Holiday - All-Defensive second-team selections - will take shifts guarding Irving, and Boston will comfortably switch its entire starting lineup onto him.
The eight-time All-Star averaged 27 points per game against the Wolves. Anthony Edwards invited the matchup against Irving but didn't live up to the billing. Edwards' fatigue hindered his defense, and Irving consistently flew by him.
Irving won't have those opportunities against the Celtics' defense, especially with Porzingis challenging his crafty finishes. Irving, who averaged 21 points against Boston this season, will look more like he did in the conference semifinals - he scored 15.7 points per game against the Thunder - than he did in the conference finals.
P.J. Washington: Over 11.8 points per game
Doncic has always played at an outstanding level in his four playoff appearances. He finally broke through because of his reliable supporting cast, including Washington, acquired via trade in February.
Washington averages the third-most minutes and points for Dallas this postseason, scoring 13.6 points per contest. His shots primarily come off feeds from Doncic and Irving, who command so much defensive attention. The gravity of those two stars has created open shots for Washington on the wing and corner.
The former Hornet has made the most corner threes in the playoffs. Washington is a streaky shooter. He knocked down 46% of his threes against the Thunder but only 25% against the Wolves. Washington still averaged 12.2 points against Minnesota despite poor shooting.
Role players will have a major part in determining the champion. Dallas needs Washington's offensive prowess to show up for one more series.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
